Market Update: What You Need to Know (13 to 19 November)

Crypto & Economic Calendar

The events below inform governments, corporations, traders and investors on the health of the economy. I only list events noted as “high volatility expected” in related markets.

  • Monday
    • All Day: Singapore Holiday
  • Tuesday
    • All Day: India Holiday
    • 0830 ET: [USD] Consumer Price Index (CPI)
      • Core Prediction: 0.3%
      • Month over Month Prediction: 0.1%
      • Year over Year Prediction: 3.3%
    • 1850 ET: [JPY] Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
  • Wednesday
    • All Day: Brazil Holiday
    • 0200 ET: [GBP] CPI
    • 0830 ET: [USD] Retail Sales
    • 0830 ET: [USD] Producer Price Index (PPI)
    • 1030 ET: [USD] Crude Oil Inventories
  • Thursday
    • 0830 ET: [USD] Initial Jobless Claims
  • Friday
    • 0500 ET: [EUR] CPI
    • 0830 ET: [USD] Building Permits

Bitcoin Spice – Is the Bull Back?

Summary: Bitcoin offered a spicy month of green candles. Mid October through to yesterday’s weekly close was 4 weekly green candles, for a collective 40% gain at peak. Some call this the early stages of a bull market, others are looking for a pullback. I think both are possible, and we’ll cover both.

My advice for the past year remains the same, dollar cost average in. Earlier was better but its not too late. Bitcoin is only half of it’s previous high, and even a conservative growth of 3x this cycle means you have plenty of time to stack crypto. Don’t wait, develop a DCA strategy and begin to buy now before institutions do.

Bitcoin Levels: $30k marked the most important support level in 2021’s bull market, and it took bulls three tries, but they finally escaped $30k in mid-October. This moved price into the next higher value range, between $30k and $40k, closer to bull market territory.

  • Immediate resistance: $37,592
  • Immediate support: $36,609
  • Current value range: $30,009 to $39,325
  • Support levels:
    • ~$34,800
    • $33,000
    • 30,170
    • $29,379
    • $26,145
    • $25,100
    • $22,240
    • $20,981
  • Resistance levels:
    • $37,592
    • $37,993
    • $38,094
    • $40,400
    • $42,354
    • $46,967

Bull Perspective: Mid October’s breakdown to around $25,000 was an opportunity for momentum and sentiment reset. This reset Open Interest (OI) and gave bulls a third opportunity to break through the $30,000 resistance, which they did.

An argument could be made that closing the monthly chart over $30k signals the start of a bull market, especially as we also remain over the 20w SMA and 21w EMA, which generally signal prevailing bull sentiment. But this sentiment is likely aligned to the potential Bitcoin ETFs and if they are rejected or delays, may stifle short term bullish sentiment. From a technical perspective, the chart looks bullish, and the range between $30k and $40k is historically a heavy accumulation range; an ETF approval would be extra spice. If we retrace here, I prefer to see no lower than $33k, but prefer $34k or higher for support. To the upside, $38k is a key resistance and flipping it would be a very bullish signal.

Bear Perspective: The chart looks bullish, sentiment is rising – all positives. However, while a continued upside move is possible, its unlikely we see institutional money enter the market before the SEC issues a Bitcoin ETF. With that in mind, any moves beyond $30,000 and up to $40,000 could be short lived, if the ETFs are rejected or delayed, or the macro degrades further and Bitcoin is impacted.

US Dollar Index (DXY)

The Dollar Index showed some short term strength through September, due to an indecisive but decidedly more hawkish US Fed, but that rally faded in October as market sentiment pivoted to focus on the potential of peak rates, and the speculation about what that means.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) continues a gradual retreat, after peaking in October at 107.113 on the back of “higher for longer” interest rates and hawkish chatter from the US Federal Reserve. But make no mistake, they are approaching the end state of this hiking cycle, its just a question of when. The DXY is down nearly 2.5% from October peak, in light of this shifting sentiment.

While its not impossible to see the DXY rise again, if November closes under 106.6, we’ll see a proper lower high set, and the emergence of a downtrend, with a downside target of upper 90s possible. Key levels to monitor on DXY are closing the monthly over 106, or under 104.8, which would lend additional confirmation of either a longer rally, or impending downside towards the next key level around 101.

From a technical perspective, the DXY has been flirting with downside continuation since mid 2023. In this final stage of the current hiking cycle the US Fed maintains a hawkish outlook as long as possible. This can lead to a “dead cat bounce” for the Dollar as the US Fed tries to thread the needle in squeezing demand but avoiding a recession, and that may be what this rally to 107 was.

Why do we care about the DXY?

The Dollar Index is a complex financial data point, a lot of external factors impact its value. But in the simplest terms, you can look at the relationship between DXY and risk assets like Bitcoin simply – they usually move inverse to each other. When DXY is up, BTC is down; and the opposite is true.

Market Sentiment

While things look up from late last year, there remains a measure of uncertainty in the macroeconomic forecast, and regulatory climate. That said, it is clear the market sentiment is shifting, with growing confidence in the Bitcoin ETF approvals, and Ethereum following it in 2024, and with the worst of the bad news behind us in terms of bad players like FTX and the SBF trial.

We are currently oscillating around 70 (slightly greedy), with a high of 74 in November, the most positive sentiment seen in two years, since November 2021.

An ETF approval will likely lead to improved sentiment and greed across Bitcoin and crypto markets. Further boosts to market sentiment will follow if the US Fed declares a pause on rates, peak rates, or if a recession is confirmed avoided.


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