Spooked by Bitcoin? Is the top in? Read On

We are consolidating in no-mans land under the ATH. On-chain and sentiment data is healthy, no indications of a major top being in.

But lets ignore that for this article, and explore the market structure a little. I hate spamming a lot of lines on a chart, but it will be helpful in understanding current price action.

Because there isn’t a lot of historical data in this range, price often jockeys between levels from the top of the 2021 cycle.


Note the green higher-low around $60.6k. Its possible we don’t go lower in the current trend. If that happens, you’ll see consolidation over $61k before another rally towards ATH. But if I’m being honest- I’d like to see a proper shakeout here and move lower.

A major bull market retracement will typically land around the 38% Fib, which is currently $49k to $50k. More extreme parabola see even steeper retracements, but lets stick with 38%.

I care about the monthly more than lower timeframes, so with a 38% retracement, intramonth wicks can still go lower, perhaps as far as $46k. Ideally we still get an April close over $49k in that case, but closing lower would be okay.

A drop to that range is great news on a few fronts -it spooks the market and resets virtually all sentiment and on-chain indicators like NUPL or MVRV, some of which are nearly at extreme greed already.

If we remain above $60k in the current structure, that is bullish in the near term, but may signal a shorter lived bull market because it doesn’t give us a chance to reset sentiment.

What would invalidate the bull market? From a price perspective it would be a monthly close under $50k, or any weekly close below say $44k. Or when on-chain or sentiment data rises to risk levels. Ideally I have a confluence of signals across multiple data points.

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