Crypto & Economic Calendar
The events below inform governments, corporations, traders and investors on the health of the economy. I only list events noted as “high volatility expected” in related markets.
- Monday
- UK Bank Holiday
- Tuesday
- 1000 ET: [USD] Consumer Confidence
- 1000 ET: [USD] Job Openings
- Wednesday
- 0800 ET: [EUR] German Consumer Price Index (CPI)
- 0815 ET: [USD] ADP Nonfarm Employment
- 0830 ET: [USD] Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
- 1000 ET: [USD] Pending Home Sales
- 1030 ET: [USD] Crude Oil Inventories
- 2130 ET: [CNY] Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
- Thursday
- 0500 ET: [EUR] CPI
- 0830 ET: [USD] Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index
- 0830 ET: [USD] Initial Jobless Claims
- Friday
- 0830 ET: [USD] Nonfarm Payrolls
- 0830 ET: [USD] Unemployment Rate
- 1000 ET: [USD] Manufacturing PMI
Bitcoin Consolidation Along $25k
Summary: From last week we saw very little movement on Bitcoin, or larger crypto markets. Bitcoin’s price action reflects indecision, that could result in a consolidation prior to a recovery, and another potential rally towards $30k.
Alternatively, and more likely given current data: downside continuation could lead Bitcoin to the range between the 50% and 62% fibonnaci retracement, or $20k to $22k. While it may spook some participants, this is a generally healthy retracement in a high timeframe uptrend.
Bitcoin Levels: $30k marked the most important support level in 2021’s bull market, and is the most important resistance to overcome in 2023. Several rejections from $30k since Q2 2023 add to the importance of $30k.
- Immediate resistance: between $26,100 to $26,200
- Immediate support: ~$25,900
- Current value range: $25,600 to $26,100
- Support levels:
- $25,800
- $25,500
- $25,248
- $24,450
- Resistance levels:
- $26,300
- $27,600 (21w EMA)
- $29,044
- $30,600
- $31,300-$32,000
- $34,000-$36,500
- $37,500
- $40,000
Bull Perspective: This breakdown is an opportunity for momentum and sentiment reset. Bulls were exhausted at $30k, its clear they need additional “firepower” to break through resistance. This can be achieved when price retreats to a key support that brings in more buyers and interest. This means a consolidation in this range can reverse into a new rally. The right news may also spark a reversal of sentiment and subsequent rally, such as a Bitcoin ETF approval, or additional regulatory clarity from the US Government.
Bear Perspective: A bullish reversal over the next month cannot be ruled out, but this writer’s bias is weakly bearish. We have a weak uptrend diagonal support that price found support on, around $25.2k, but price actions appears to reflect a continuation pattern, and the shallow retracement just under the 23.6 fib doesn’t align to sentiment. Momentum indicators on the weekly, such as TSI or RSI, also reflect a bearish momentum that hasn’t quite bottomed. $20k to $22k remain probable, but is only marginally lower than current prices and will offer a great dollar-cost-average (DCA) opportunity for patient traders.
US Dollar Index (DXY)
Little is changed from last week. We continue to monitor the level between 101 and 102 on the monthly. As we’ve said many times before – losing or rejecting from that range produced prolonged downtrends five times in DXY’s history.
If the DXY holds it’s current level around 104, it will mark the first higher close since May, but also represents local resistance for the past quarter. With some indecision in the macro, DXY is flirting with downside continuation; but being the final stage of the current hiking cycle, may see a “dead cat bounce” for the Dollar, before that downside ensues.
Why do we care about the DXY?
The Dollar Index is a complex financial data point, a lot of external factors impact its value. But in the simplest terms, you can look at the relationship between DXY and risk assets like Bitcoin simply – they usually move inverse to each other. When DXY is up, BTC is down; and the opposite is true.
Market Sentiment
While things look up from late last year, there remains a pronounced uncertainty in the macroeconomic forecast, and regulatory climate. This is reflected in the past month’s drop below 50, to weakly bearish around 40.
An ETF approval likely lead to improved sentiment and greed across Bitcoin and crypto markets. Further boosts to market sentiment will follow if the US Fed declares a pause on rates, peak rates, or if a recession is confirmed avoided.
Trading Tips
Get enough sleep.
Lack of sleep and poor health = poor decision making, poor risk management, and unhappiness.
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