This is a short weekly market update, as I’m on vacation next two weeks. Last week we were watching $53k as the first opportunity for a BTC floor, due to alignment with fib retracement levels, the bullish value range in the lower $50s, and correlation with key levels last cycle.
Congrats if you stacked on the way down, those bags are up double-digits from July’s lows.
But obviously the big news over the weekend was former President Trump and the assassination attempt on him.
In an odd way, this improved his odds of winning the election. And because markets crave stability, predictability, with Trump’s odds rising, markets rise too.
This is especially true when Trump claims to be pro-crypto, and his new VP pick is a BTC holder.
You don’t have to be pro-Trump to realize he has a lot of fans within the crypto space, and that this photo and moment in time is a lightning rod for supporters to rally around.
The timing worked well – BTC was contending with the $59-59.5k resistance it rejected from twice earlier.
Hours later, as photos started circulating of Trump standing defiant after being shot, Bitcoin began an 11% rally into today.
In this rally, BTC also reclaimed part of the bull market support band (20 & 21w MAs).
To confirm a reversal, the weekly should close >$62.6k; more bullish is recovering the 20w SMA. If we can close July >$73k with volume, we might see a full-send mode earlier than expected.
But as I’ve said for months, my bias remains towards sideways: between $50k & $70k; small odds of lower. Its just a question of how much longer that remains true.
The end of rate cycle is on the horizon.
A reversal on rates, in addition to election and ETF narratives, will be a strong catalyst for markets to resume a proper uptrend. The healthier the inflation data looks, the higher the odds of a reversal on rates by Q4 of this year.
On the topic of Trump:
We have good reason to doubt Trump’s crypto promises, he backtracked on promises in the past.
But his VP selection adds credibility, as JD Vance is a BTC proponent. Trump also has speaking engagements at crypto events, and seemingly has more mature advisors this election cycle, which should translate to more consistency in his campaign and execution if elected.
This could drive crypto even higher end of cycle than originally forecast.
Final note: I still believe that after this final melt-up in markets, we are in for some hurt, probably starting some time in 2025.
Continue stacking now, but have a plan for exiting.